基于随机演化博弈的异质性主体中低碳扩散稳定性的仿真分析

A Simulation Analysis of Low-carbon Diffusion Stability in Heterogeneous Agents Based on Stochastic Evolutionary Game

为了分析不确定性因素对异质性主体中低碳扩散过程的影响,构建以企业和消费者为主体的随机演化博弈模型,并对其进行稳定性分析,得到3种低碳扩散稳定情形,且以新能源汽车比亚迪E6为例进行仿真验证。研究结果表明,当采取低碳策略的企业比例和采取低碳消费的消费者比例较低时,在不同的噪声强度下,低碳扩散最终都不能实现有效稳定;随着两者比例的增大,在经历混沌状态后,低碳策略和低碳消费能分别在企业和消费者中成功扩散,且在不同噪声强度下实现有效稳定。

In order to analyze the influence of uncertain factors on low-carbon diffusion in heterogeneous agents,a stochastic evolutionary game model was constructed considering enterprises and consumers,the stability of this model analyzed,and the corresponding three stability scenarios presented.Moreover,the scenarios were simulated and verified through an example of new energy vehicle BYD E6.The research results show that when the proportions of enterprises with low-carbon strategy and consumers with low-carbon consumption are small,the success of low-carbon diffusion cannot be realized no matter what the noise intensity is,and with the above two proportions increasing,low-carbon strategy and low-carbon consumption can diffuse successfully in enterprises and consumers respectively,and low-carbon diffusion can arrive at effective stability successfully under different noise intensities,after experiencing a chaotic state.