中国农地流转与农民收入的时空耦合关系及空间效应

Spatio-temporal coupling relationship and spatial effect between rural land transfers and farmers’ income in China

基于中国省域2003—2018年面板数据,通过构建耦合协调发展模型,分析农地流转与农民收入耦合协调发展时空演变特征,并运用空间杜宾模型剖析农地流转对不同类型农民收入的空间效应。结果表明:(1)在时间维度上,农地流转与农民收入的耦合协调发展程度趋于优化,但农地流转一直以滞后于农业收入为主,农地流转由同步于非农收入转为超前于非农收入。(2)在空间维度上,农地流转与不同类型农民收入的耦合协调发展程度在不同省区之间差异明显。(3)农地流转显著促进了本地区农业收入与非农收入的提高,且农地流转对农民人均收入产生直接效应与溢出效应;虽然户均农地规模增加并没有显著提高非农收入,但农地的规模经济使得户均农地规模增加,显著促进了农业收入提高。

Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2003 to 2018, this paper examines the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling and coordinated development of rural land transfer and different types of farmers’ income by building a coupling coordinated development model, and analyzes the spatial effects of rural land transfer on different types of farmers’ income by using spatial Durbin model. Results show that:(1) From the perspective of time, the degree of coupling and coordinated development between rural land transfer and farmers’ income tends to be optimized, but rural land transfer has always lagged behind agricultural income, and rural land transfer has changed from synchronous to ahead of nonagricultural income.(2) From the spatial dimension, the degree of coupling and coordinated development between rural land transfer and types of farmers’ income varies significantly among different provinces.(3) Rural land transfer shows a direct effect on agricultural income and non-agricultural income within spatial units, and has a direct spillover effect on the per capita income of farmers. Although the increase in the scale of farmland did not obviously raise the non-agricultural income, agricultural incomes have been significantly improved owing to the scale economy.