中国省域碳排放的区域差异及脱钩趋势演变

Regional Differences in China’s Provincial Carbon Emissions and Evolution of Decoupling Trends

一个国家或地区碳排放目标的实现取决于经济增速与碳排放降速的相对关系,而碳排放与经济发展的相对脱钩是中国碳排放目标实现的重要保障。本文结合泰尔指数和Tapio模型,刻画中国各省份2005—2017年碳排放与经济发展的相对关系,本文结论有助于辨识中国不同地区碳排放与经济发展的相对关系,落实不同碳排放及经济发展水平下可行的低碳发展策略,进而为中国碳达峰与碳中和目标的实现提供借鉴参考。

The achievement of a country or region’s carbon emission target depends on the relative relationship between the economic growth rate and the carbon emission reduction rate,and the relative decoupling of carbon emission and economic development is an important guarantee for the realization of China’s carbon emission target.This article combines the Theil index and Tapio model to characterize the relative relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in various provinces in China from 2005 to 2017.The conclusions of this article are helpful to identify the relative relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in different regions of China,and implement the feasible low-carbon development strategies in different carbon emission and economic development levels,which will provide a reference for achieving China’s goals of peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.