经济政策不确定性对中国出口企业升级的影响--基于贸易中介集聚视角的经验分析

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Chinese Firms’Export Upgrading-Empirical Analysis based on the Perspective of Trade Intermediary Agglomeration

在全球经济不确定性背景下,科学理解企业贸易模式选择行为,对构建双循环新发展格局具有重要意义。从贸易中介空间集聚的视角,运用2000—2013年中国出口企业贸易数据,对经济政策不确定性与企业出口模式转型升级的影响进行了分析和验证。结果表明,目的国经济政策不确定性和贸易中介空间集聚均会显著降低企业加工贸易出口份额,提升企业一般贸易出口份额,且贸易中介的空间集聚将进一步放大这种“贸易模式转型升级”效应。这一结论对于不同的估计模型、估计方法和估计样本均保持稳健。由此可见,不确定性的外部环境会倒逼“两头在外”的加工贸易企业转型为一般贸易企业,而在本国合理发展和布局贸易中介,将有效缓解出口企业所受国外之约束,增强对外贸易发展中的韧性。

Scientifically understanding firms’trade mode is of great significance to construct the new development pattern of“Dual Circulation”under the global economic uncertainty.From the perspective of trade intermediaries’agglomeration,this paper use the trade data of Chinese export enterprises from 2000 to 2013 analyzes and verifies the impact of destination country’s economic policy uncertainty on firms’trade mode upgrading.The results show that:Both destination country’s economic policy uncertainty and trade intermediaries’agglomeration significantly reduce the share of processing trade and increase the share of ordinary trade of a firm.This conclusion remains robust for different estimation models,estimation methods and estimation samples.It can be seen that the uncertain external environment will force the processing trade firm with“two ends outside”to transform into ordinary trading firm,and the reasonable development and layout of trade intermediaries in the country will effectively alleviate the foreign constraints of export firms and further strengthen the resilience during the upgrading of foreign trade.