气候变化下寒露林蛙在中国的潜在地理分布

Potential geographical distribution of Rana hanluica in China under climate change

近几十年来,全球变暖对全球生物多样性及其地理分布产生了重要影响,特别是对气候变化敏感的两栖动物。寒露林蛙(Rana hanluica)是中国特有种,但在濒危物种红色名录中处于无危状态。为了评估寒露林蛙种群的生存现状,掌握该物种在中国的潜在分布区,以及在未来气候变化条件下适宜生境区的变化,本研究利用最大熵(MaxEnt)生态位模型和地理信息系统,对中国未来气候变化情景下(2050和2070年)寒露林蛙的适宜生境区进行识别。基于47个寒露林蛙分布位点和20个典型环境因子,建立了寒露林蛙在当前和未来气候条件下的适宜生境模型,并分析了相关的环境影响因子。结果表明:MaxEnt模型的预测准确度较高,受试者工作曲线面积值达0.993;寒露林蛙在当前气候条件下的潜在适宜生境面积为36.36万km^(2),潜在地理分布区域主要位于湖南省和贵州省;影响潜在地理分布的主要环境因子为最干月降水量和海拔。在未来2种典型浓度路径的气候情景下(SSP1-2.5和SSP5-8.5),寒露林蛙适宜生境区均出现不同程度的缩减,导致总适宜生境面积呈减少趋势;其高适宜生境向高纬度地区转移,其核心分布区仍以湖南省为主。

Global warming in the last few decades had strong impacts on biodiversity and geographical distribution of different animal species worldwide,especially amphibians.Rana hanluica,a frog species endemic in China,is still classified as Least Concerned in the Red List of Threatened Species because few studies have been conducted on this species.To understand the survival of Rana hanluica population,we used maximum entropy models(MaxEnt)to analyze its distribution across regions under current climatic conditions based on 47 distribution records and 20 environmental factors.We investigated the changes in distribution of this species under different climate scenarios in China(2050 s and 2070 s).Finally,current and future suitable habitats for R.hanluica were modeled,and the impacts of environmental factors in shaping its distribution were evaluated.The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was high,and AUC value of the receiver operating curve was 0.993.The total suitable habitat area for R.hanluica was 36.36×10^(4)km^(2),mainly located in Hunan and Guizhou provinces in China.The major environmental factors influencing the geographic distribution of R.hanluica were precipitation of dryest month and altitude.Under the future climate scenario(2050 and 2070)with two representative concentration pathways(RCPs,SSP1-2.5,SSP5-8.5),the suitable habitat of R.hanluica was reduced in different degrees,resulting in a decreasing trend of the total suitable habitat area.The center of gravity in highly suitable habitat of R.hanluica shifted to high-latitude regions,with the core distribution area in Hunan Province.