流动人口居留时长意愿的空间分异及影响因素

The intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence:Spatial variation and determinants

基于2018年中国流动人口动态监测数据,根据流动人口愿意在流入地居留时间的长短将居留意愿划分为短期居留意愿、长期居留意愿、永久居留意愿3种类型,运用空间分析技术和分层模型对中国地级及以上城市流动人口不同类型居留意愿的空间分异及影响因素进行对比分析。研究发现:具有短期和长期居留意愿的流动人口比例合计超过60%,表明两栖和多栖生计仍是流动人口的主导生计策略;短期和永久居留意愿在空间上存在明显的"一高一低"分布差异,短期居留意愿在东部地区最高,东北地区最低,永久居留意愿则呈完全相反的分布格局;中西部地区流动人口长期居留意愿最高。模型结果显示,流入地特征和流动人口个体特征共同影响着不同类型的居留意愿:在东部和中部、经济发达以及职工平均工资高的地区,流动人口短期和长期居留意愿较高,永久居留意愿较低;男性、农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入低、在外流动时间短、跨省流动的流动人口倾向于短期和长期居留;而女性、非农业户口、受教育程度和家庭月均收入高、在省内流动、在外流动时间长的流动人口更愿意在流入地永久定居。

Using data from the national migration survey of 2018,the intentions of migrants with respect to duration of residence have been categorized into three types,namely,short-term residence,long-term residence,and permanent residence.On this basis,GIS spatial analysis and hierarchical linear modelling(HLM)have been used to examine the determinants and the spatial variation of various categories of residence intentions in 290 prefecture-and provinciallevel cities of China.The results show that those with short-term and long-term residence intentions account for 60%of the total number of migrants,suggesting that bi-and multilocational livelihood strategies are still dominant among migrants in China.It was found that there is a strong contrast between the spatial patterns for short-term residence intentions and that of permanent residence intentions.Furthermore,the short-term residence intentions are relatively high in the eastern region of the country and relatively low in the northeastern region;in contrast,the permanent residence intentions exhibit a spatial pattern completely different from that of the short-term residence intentions,and the long-term residence intentions are the highest in the central and western regions.The HLM results show that the characteristics of both the destination and the migrants at the individual level affect different categories of residence intentions.It is found that the short-term and long-term residence intentions are relatively high,and the permanent residence intentions are relatively low in the eastern and central regions,and in areas with more developed economies and high average wage levels.Moreover,for male,inter-provincial migrating,agricultural hukou status,lower educational attainments,shorter migration duration,and lower average monthly household income,are the factors conducive to short-term and long-term residence intentions;for female,intra-provincial migrating,non-agricultural hukou status,higher educational attainments,longer migration duration,and higher average monthly household income,tend to promote permanent residence intentions.