流域输沙量变化归因分析方法综述

Review on the methods to separate the impacts of climate and human activities on sediment discharge

流域输沙量变化是水文过程的一个重要环节,同时与区域水资源、土壤管理、甚至生态系统的健康运行紧密联系,因而如何量化气候变化和人类活动对输沙量变化的相对贡献率成为水文学研究的热点问题。论文主要系统总结了流域输沙量变化归因分析的9种方法:简单线性回归分析、双累积曲线法、泥沙归因诊断分析法、库坝拦沙量法、SEDD模型、SWAT模型、弹性系数法、相似天气条件法和水保法,阐述了各方法的计算过程及其适用性,并对各种方法进行评价,同时对未来的流域输沙量变化归因分析方法进行展望:(1)尝试新方法的应用,以探索更为适当的输沙量预测新方法;(2)考虑流域内极端降雨事件对输沙变化的定量影响,进一步提高结果的准确度;(3)明晰各归因分析方法的局限性和差异性,进行科学的结合与相互验证。研究结果可为流域内生态水文综合治理和土地资源优化管理提供科学依据。

As an important part of hydrological process,sediment transport is closely related to regional water resources,soil management,and even the healthy operation of ecosystem.Therefore,quantifying the relative contribution rate of climate change and human activities to sediment transport variation has become a hot issue in hydrology research.In this study,nine methods of attribution analysis of sediment discharge change,including simple linear regression analysis,double cumulative curve method,sediment attribution diagnosis analysis method,dam-sedimentation based method,sediment delivery distributed(SEDD)model,soil&water assessment tool(SWAT)model,elastic coefficient method,similar weather conditions method,and soil and water conservation method were systematically summarized.The calculation process and applicability of each method were elaborated,and the attribution analysis of sediment discharge change in the future was also discussed.Specifically,future work should try to enhance the application of new methods to explore a more appropriate new method for sediment discharge prediction.The impact of extreme rainfall events on sediment transport changes should be considered as well so that the accuracy of the results can be improved.Additionally,the limitations and differences of each attribution analysis method should be clarified,and hence the integration of existing evaluation methods and their mutual verification can improve the precision of the prediction.The results from this study can provide a scientific basis for the comprehensive management of ecological hydrology and land resources management in watersheds.