劳动力市场不确定性、人力资本内化与生育意愿——基于三期中国家庭综合社会调查数据(CGSS)

Labor Market Uncertainty,Human Capital Internalization and Fertility Willingness——Based on the Three-phase Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)

基于贝克尔孩子数量质量替代理论模型并构建三期世代交叠模型,整合2012、2013和2015年三期中国家庭综合社会调查数据,开展理论推导与实证分析。研究表明:(1)工作不确定性对女性生育意愿有显著抑制作用,而高人力资本能够提高其抵御不确定性与抗风险能力并提高生育意愿,从而突破了传统的"越穷越生"恶性循环;(2)女性的二孩生育意愿在工作和教育匹配的婚姻模式中呈U型分布特征,家庭资产对其有增促作用;夫妻工作婚配显示女方签订劳动合同而男方未签的家庭,其生育意愿最强,夫妻双方均签订劳动合同的生育意愿次之;夫妻教育婚配结果显示,夫妻双方同为本科毕业者,其生育意愿最强,其次是同为研究生及以上学历。(3)放开二胎的政策对女性生育意愿并未产生预期正向影响。(4)空间异质性分析显示,京津冀区域女性生育意愿普遍较低,户籍管理制度对生育意愿抑制作用显著。(5)亟需通过系统性配套措施提升劳动力市场确定性和人力资本内化水平,进而促进"二胎"乃至当前的"三胎"政策效应最大化。

Based on Becker’s substitution theory model of quantity and quality of children,this paper constructs a three-stage over lapping generation model,integrates the data of three periods of Chinese family comprehensive social survey in 2012,2013 and 2015,and carries out theoretical derivation and empirical analysis.The results show that:1)Job uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on women’s fertility intention,while high human capital can improve their ability to resist uncertainty and risk,thus improve their fertility intention and break through the traditional vicious circle of“the poorer,the more children”.2)Women’s desire to have a second child has a U-shaped distribution in the marriage pattern of matching work and education,and family assets have a positive effect on it;The family with the wife signing the labor contract and the husband without signing it has the strongest desire to have children,followed by the family with both husband and wife signing the labor contract;Education background analysis shows that those who both have bachelor degree have the strongest desire to have children,followed by those who have graduate degree or above.3)The“universal two-child policy”has no expected positive effect on women’s fertility intention.4)Spatial heterogeneity analysis shows that the fertility desire of women in Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei region is generally low,and the registered residence management system has a significant inhibitory effect on fertility desire.5)It is urgent to improve the level of labor market certainty and human capital internalization through systematic supporting measures,so as to maximize the effect of“Two Child”and even the current“Three Child”policy.