中国煤炭产业社会许可研究——基于新闻文本的实证分析

Social License of China’s Coal Industry:An Empirical Analysis Based on News Reports

煤炭产业的健康发展离不开整个社会的支持和认可,即社会许可。以主题为煤炭的新闻报道作为数据源,利用深度学习的长短期记忆模型(LSTM)对报道文本进行情感分类,再通过文本分析方法分别从积极和消极的报道中提取正向和负向影响煤炭产业社会许可的因素。研究结果表明:正向影响煤炭产业社会许可的因素有产能优化、清洁发展、科技创新和经济贡献;负向影响因素有煤电矛盾、产能过剩、供求不平衡和生产安全。根据各影响因素的重要性趋势分析,近三年来对煤炭产业社会许可影响最大的因素是产能、清洁发展和供求不平衡。其中,清洁发展对于促进社会许可的重要性正逐年上升。此外,研究还发现生产安全问题对社会许可的负面影响会随着安全事故的增多而扩大。

The healthy development of coal industry cannot be separated from the support and recognition of the whole society,namely social license. In this study,news reports themed on coal were used as data sources,and the long and short term memory model(LSTM)of deep learning was used to carry out the emotional classification of the reported texts. Then,the positive and negative factors affecting social license of the coal industry were extracted from positive and negative reports through text analysis. The results showed that the factors that positively affected social license of the coal industry were capacity optimization,clean development,technological innovation and economic contribution. While the negative impacting factors include contradiction between coal and electricity,overcapacity,imbalance between supply and demand and production safety. According to the analysis of the importance trend of each influencing factor,the most important ones in the past three years are production capacity(both positive and negative),clean development and imbalance between supply and demand. Among them,the importance of clean development in the promotion of social license is increasing year by year. In addition,the study also concluded that the negative impact of production safety on social licenses would expand as security incidents increase.