“三区”视角下滨湖县国土空间用途管制格局耦合协调性与机制分析

Coupling Coordination and Mechanism Analysis of Space Control Pattern of Lakeside County from the Perspective of “Three Zones”

【目的】探讨滨湖县国土空间用途管制格局,并对其耦合协调性的内在机制进行分析。【方法】构建评价指标体系,识别"城镇-农业-生态"国土空间用途管制格局;运用耦合度与耦合协调度模型,对其耦合协调性进行研究;引入结构方程模型(SEM),分析耦合协调性内在机制。【结果】(1)湖口县国土空间用途管制格局中,农业空间比重最大,面积占比47.94%,生态空间次之,占比39.53%,城镇空间最小,占12.53%;(2)湖口县"城镇-农业-生态"国土空间用途管制耦合协调度总体呈"西北高,东南低"格局,总体协调性较好,未出现勉强协调以及不协调情况。整体以中级协调地区为主(占比84.17%),良好协调地区次之(占比14.99%),初级协调地区仅占0.84%,且分布较为零星;(3)湖口县城镇发展通达性对农业生产适宜性的直接效果为0.963,农业生产适宜性对生态保护迫切性的直接效果为1.151,同时作为中介变量,城镇发展通达性通过农业生产适宜性对生态保护迫切性的间接影响效果为1.108,城镇发展通达性对生态保护迫切性的直接效果为-0.162。【结论】湖口县城镇空间发展有力推进农业空间质量提升,而农业空间的质量提升亦对生态保护起到强有力的支撑作用。但城镇空间的发展还是以牺牲生态空间的质量为代价,两者还处在不协调阶段。研究结果可为湖口县用途管制格局的合理确定提供一定依据。

[Objective]The purpose of this study is to explore the space control pattern of lakeside county,and analyze the internal coupling mechanism.[Method]Firstly,by establishing the evaluation indexes the“urban-agriculture-ecology”pattern of space control was identified.Then the coupling coordination was studied by using coupling degree and coupling coordination degree model;structural equation model(SEM)was introduced to analyze the internal coupling mechanism.[Result](1)The largest area in the space control pattern of Hukou County is agricultural space,which accounts for 47.94%,followed by ecological space,accounting for 39.53%,and urban space,accounting for only 12.53%.(2)The coupling coordination degree of“urban-agricultureecology”of the space control in Hukou County shows a pattern of“high in the northwest and low in the southeast”on the whole.The overall coordination degree is good,and there is no forced coordination or incoordination.Intermediate coordination area(84.17%)is the largest,followed by good coordination area(14.99%),and primary coordination areas only account for 0.84%,and the distribution is sporadic.(3)The direct effect of urban development accessibility on the suitability of agricultural production is 0.963,and the direct effect of agricultural production suitability on the urgency of ecological protection is 1.151.Meanwhile,as an intermediary variable,the indirect effect of urban development accessibility on the urgency of ecological protection suitability is 1.108,and the direct effect of urban development accessibility on the urgency of ecological protection is-0.162.[Conclusion]In Hukou County urban space development effectively promotes the improvement of agricultural space quality,and the improvement of agricultural space quality also plays a strong role in supporting ecological protection.However,the development of urban space is still at the cost of the quality of ecological space,and they are still in the phase of incoordination.The results of this study can provide a reference for the reasonable determination of the space control pattern in Hukou County.