中国产业结构高级化对碳排放强度的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Industrial Structure Upgrading on Carbon Emission Intensity in China

文章以中国30个省区市2007—2019年面板数据为研究对象,测度并分析了碳排放强度与产业结构高级化水平,在此基础上建立空间计量模型分析了产业结构高级化对碳排放强度的空间溢出效应,建立面板门槛模型分析了产业结构高级化对碳排放强度的非线性影响。得出如下结论:与2007年相比,2019年中国大部分省区市碳排放强度有所降低,所有省区市产业结构高级化水平有所提升,空间自相关结果表明,中国碳排放强度以及产业结构高级化均表现出显著的正向空间自相关;空间计量模型回归结果表明,产业结构高级化水平提升既能降低本地区的碳排放强度,也能降低周边地区的碳排放强度;面板门槛模型回归结果表明,当经济发展水平处于第三区间、技术创新和城镇化水平处于第二区间时,产业结构高级化降低碳排放强度的能力最大。

Taking the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions,and cities in China from 2007 to 2019 as the re⁃search object,this paper measures and analyzes the carbon emission intensity and the level of industrial structure upgrad⁃ing.On this basis,a spatial econometric model is established to analyze the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity.At the same time,a panel threshold model is established to analyze the nonlinear impact of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission intensity.The following conclusions are drawn:compared with 2007,the carbon emission intensity of most provinces,autonomous regions,and cities in China are reduced in 2019,and the level of industrial structure upgrading of all provinces,autonomous regions,and cities are improved.The results of spatial autocorrelation show that China's carbon emission intensity and the industrial structure upgrading show significant positive spatial autocorrelation;the regression results of spatial econometric model show that industrial structure upgrad⁃ing can not only reduce the carbon emission intensity of the region,but also reduce the carbon emission intensity of the surrounding areas;the regression results of panel threshold model show that when the level of economic development is in the third interval and the level of technological innovation and urbanization is in the second interval,industrial structure upgrading has the greatest ability to reduce carbon emission intensity.