全球全要素生产率(TFP)的时空演变及影响因素研究

Spatial-Temporal Dynamics and Underlying Factors of TFP across the World

全要素生产率(TFP)是经济持续增长的关键因素,经济全球化深刻地改变了TFP的来源构成和演化动态。本文基于2004-2017年112个主要国家的面板数据,运用变异系数、自组织特征映射模型和探索性空间数据分析方法解析了全球TFP的时空特征,并利用空间面板杜宾模型定量识别了影响因素。通过研究发现:全球主要国家TFP的发展差距趋于缩小,不同国家TFP的演化路径呈现明显的类型分异特征;全球TFP的空间相关性显著增强,TFP的空间格局呈现持续的核心-边缘结构特征;知识资本规模、经济发展质量、基础设施水平和制度质量对TFP具有显著的正向影响,而工业化水平、外商直接投资规模和贸易开放度对TFP具有显著的负向影响;空间溢出效应是TFP的重要影响因素,不同影响因素的直接效应和间接效应存在明显差异。本文期待为中国构建开放型经济体系、提升经济增长质量的实践提供政策借鉴。

Total factor productivity(TFP)is the key for sustained economic growth.Based on the panel data of the world s 112 major countries during the 2004—2017 periods,the spatial-temporal dynamics of global TFP is explored by using exploratory spatial data analysis method,and their underlying factors are examined by spatial Durbin model.Two main results are found.First,the evolution of TFP exhibits convergence and spatial dependence characteristics.From the temporal perspective,evolution paths of TFP across countries are heterogeneous.The productivity of high-income countries tends to drop,while that of the low-income countries tends to improve,leading to the convergence of global TFP.From the spatial perspective,the correlation of TFP between geographically adjacent countries is significantly enhanced,and more and more countries are concentrated in the H-H and L-L quadrants in the Moran scatter plot,resulting in a continuous core-periphery structure in TFP geography.Second,the influence factors of global TFP and their spatial spillover effects are diversified.The intellectual capital scale,infrastructure level,economic development quality and institutional environment has significant positive effects on TFP growth,while the industrialization level,foreign direct investment and trade openness has significant negative effects.The spatial lagged variable,such as industrialization level,foreign direct investment,institutional quality and trade openness of neighboring countries have positive spatial spillover effects,while the quality of knowledge capital,economic development level has negative spatial spillover effects.Decomposition of spatial interaction effect further shows that,the direct effect and indirect effect of different influence factors are obviously different.pay more attention to the spatial spillover effects of TFP and its influencing factors,as well as avoid R&D resources competition and agglomeration shadow effects.