不确定环境下海洋牧场生态安全评价——以荣成市国家级海洋牧场示范区为例

Ecological security evaluation of marine ranching under uncertainty:A case study of national marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng

研究海洋牧场的生态安全问题对贯彻生态优先理念、解决资源环境问题、落实国家与地方政策具有重要的现实意义。然而,我国海洋牧场尚处于建设阶段,因数据不完备而带来的决策不确定问题在当前阶段异常显著。为了解决上述问题,本文首先基于DPSIR理论框架从驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应5个层面构建了海洋牧场生态安全的评价指标体系,然后通过引入平均效用熵权法计算了具有公正客观性的指标权重,在此基础上应用解析证据推理规则构建了海洋牧场生态安全指数及分项指数的评价方法,最后结合实际调研数据对荣成市7家国家级海洋牧场示范区进行了评价。评价结果表明:(1)荣成市海洋牧场在准则层的权重排序为响应>影响>状态>压力>驱动力,表明该市7家国家级海洋牧场在生态安全表现差异程度上,响应的差异较大,影响和状态的差异居中,压力和驱动力的差异较小。(2)荣成市海洋牧场生态安全指数整体处于中等偏下水平且分布较为均衡,其中,处于较为安全和临界安全等级的各1家,处于较不安全等级的有5家。(3)荣成市7家国家级海洋牧场示范区在驱动力、压力、影响、响应4个准则上的生态安全分项指数均处于临界安全等级,而在状态准则上的生态安全分项指数处于较不安全等级。案例研究证明,本文提出的理论和方法对解决不确定环境下的海洋牧场生态安全评价问题具有可行性。

The research on the ecological security of marine ranching(MRES)is of great significance for implementing the concept of ecological priority,solving the problems of resources and environment,and implementing national and local policies.However,marine ranching in China is still in the early developmentstage,and the decision-making uncertainty caused by incomplete data is extremely significant.In order to solve these problems,this study developed a MRES evaluation indicator system based on the driving force,pressure,state,impact,and response(DPSIR)framework,then introduced the Ave-entropy method to calculate the indicator weights and applied the analytical evidence reasoning rule to build the MRES index and sub-index evaluation method,and finally conducted an case study of seven national marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng City by combining with the actual research data.The results show that the weights of DPSIR dimensions in Rongcheng marine ranching zones is:Response>Impact>State>Pressure>Driving Force,indicating that the MRES of the marine ranching zones showed a great difference in response,the difference in impact and state was medium,and the difference in pressure and driving force was small.The index mean value of MRES in Rongcheng City is at the lower middle level and the distribution is balanced.Among the seven marine ranching demonstration zones in Rongcheng City,one is at the relatively safe and another at the critical safety level respectively,and five are at the less safe level.Driving force,pressure,impact,and response of the seven national marine ranching demonstration zones are at the critical safety level,while the state dimension is at the less safe level.The case study proves that the proposed theory and method are feasible to solve the MRES problem under enviromental uncertainty.