高等教育与中国女性生育数量

Higher Education and Chinese Women’s Fertility

近年来,我国受过高等教育的育龄女性比例大幅上升。高等教育女性作为西方现代婚育观念的率先接触者,她们的生育水平是未来我国育龄女性生育模式变迁的风向标。因此研究高等教育对我国女性生育水平的影响尤为必要。在研究高等教育对女性生育数量的影响时会同时面临内生性和生存数据结构问题。本文基于2015年1%人口抽样调查数据,利用1999年高校扩招政策和各省高等教育资源禀赋所带来的高等教育入学机会在出生队列和省份上的双重外生差异构造高等教育的工具变量,并使用IV-Poisson模型估计上大学对我国女性生育数量的影响;同时通过将样本中的女性起始年龄提高到30岁以上并限定为已婚来缓解生存数据结构问题。估计结果显示:相对于高中毕业生,接受高等教育的女性平均生育子女数量会下降30%左右。这种影响主要体现为上大学让女性生育二孩及多孩的概率大幅度下降,而并非不生。进一步分析发现劳动参与率是高等教育影响女性生育行为的一个重要机制。随着育龄女性中高等教育比例的继续提高,未来我国的生育水平可能会遵循西方的现代生育模式继续下降。我国的生育政策、劳动力市场政策等都亟须做出适应性的改革。构建生育友好型社会有助于降低高等教育对生育水平的影响。

Recently,the proportion of higher educated women of childbearing age in China has increased significantly.As the first contactors of modern marriage and childbearing concepts in western countries,the fertility level of college educated women is the wind vane of the fertility behaviors patterns in the future.It is particularly necessary to make clear the impact of higher education on the fertility of Chinese women.There exist both the endogenous problem and censored data problem when estimating the impact of at⁃tending college on women’s fertility.Based on the 1%population survey of China in 2015,we exploit the twoway exogenous variations of the higher education differences due to the 1999 higher education expan⁃sion policy and the provincial distribution of the higher education resource to be the IV of higher education and resort to the IV-Poisson model.To alleviate the problem of censored data,we restrict the sample to be aged beyond 30,when majority of the women have been married.The result shows that compared to having senior high school education,obtaining higher education reduces the number of children by 30%.This negative effect is mainly because of decreasing the probability of giving birth two or more children,not be⁃cause of increasing the probability of having no children.We also find that the labor force participation is one channel for the higher education’s effect on fertility.According to our study,with the proportion of higher educated women with childbearing age continue to increase in the future,our country’s fertility level will continue to decline along the western modern fertility model.Thus,it is urgent to reform the fertility and la⁃bor market policies to adapt the new situation.Building a fertility friendly society may reduce the impact of attending college on women’s fertility level.