2008—2019年浙江省流行性腮腺炎时空分布特征

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019

目的分析2008—2019年浙江省流行性腮腺炎的时空分布特征,为疫情精准防控提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2008—2019年浙江省流行性腮腺炎报告病例资料,描述性分析不同时间和地区流行性腮腺炎病例的发病率分布;采用全局和局部空间自相关分析、时空扫描分析流行性腮腺炎发病的时间和空间聚集性特征。结果2008—2019年浙江省共报告流行性腮腺炎病例167196例,发病率从2008年的56.08/10万至2019年的11.35/10万,下降了79.76%。2017年后,流行性腮腺炎报告发病的季节性不再明显。2008年、2011年和2012年流行性腮腺炎发病存在空间自相关,Moran's I值分别为0.16、0.18和0.16(P<0.05)。2008年、2011年和2012年流行性腮腺炎发病存在时空聚集性,共识别5个聚集区,1个一类聚集区以温州市苍南县为核心,覆盖17个县(市、区),聚集时间为2008年1月15日—2009年2月28日;4个二类聚集区的核心分别是嘉兴市平湖市、衢州市开化县、杭州市富阳区和绍兴市诸暨市,聚集时间为2008年1月15日—2012年6月30日。结论2008—2019年浙江省流行性腮腺炎发病水平呈下降趋势,部分地区时有反弹,2017年后季节性规律不再明显;2008年、2011年和2012年发病呈温州市、嘉兴市等地为核心的空间聚集性,2012年后未再发现空间聚集。

Objective To identify spatio-temporal distribution patterns of mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019,so as to provide insights into precise control of mumps.Methods The epidemiological data pertaining to mumps in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019 were collected from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.The time-and region-specific incidence of mumps was descriptively analyzed,and the spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of mumps incidence were identified using global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses and spatiotemporal scan analysis.Results A total of 167196 cases of mumps were reported in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019,and the incidence of mumps reduced from 56.08/105 in 2008 to 11.35/105 in 2019,with a reduction of 79.76%.There was no remarkable mumps seasonality since 2017;however,spatial autocorrelation was seen in mumps incidence in 2008,2011 and 2012,respectively(Moran's I coefficient=0.16,0.18,0.16;all P<0.05).Spatio-temporal scan analysis identified five spatio-temporal clusters of mumps incidence in 2008,2011 and 2012,and the most likely spatio-temporal cluster was mainly concentrated in Cangnan County of Wenzhou City,covering 17 counties clustered in the time frame from 15 January 2008 to 28 February 2009,while the other four clusters were concentrated in Pinghu City of Jiaxing City,Kaihua County of Quzhou City,Fuyang District of Hangzhou City and Zhuji City of Shaoxing City,clustered in the time frame from 15 January 2008 to 30 June 2012.Conclusion The incidence of mumps appeared a tendency towards a reduction in Zhejiang Province from 2008 to 2019,and rebounded in some regions.No remarkable mumps seasonality was seen since 2017.The spatio-temporal clusters of mumps incidence were concentrated in Wenzhou and Jiaxing cities of Zhejiang Province in 2008,2011 and 2012;however,no spatial cluster was identified since 2012.