乡村振兴背景下村镇土地变化与承载力多情景模拟——以江苏省溧阳市社渚镇为例

Multi-scenario Dynamic Simulation of Township Land Change and Carrying Capacity under the Background of Rural Revitalization:A Case Study of Liyang City,Jiangsu Province

采用转移矩阵法分析江苏省溧阳市社渚镇多年土地利用变化,探索村镇资源环境承载力和土地利用变化模式,揭示土地利用变化模式与社会经济系统的相互关系,运用系统动力学方法,构建村镇土地利用变化SD模型,模拟出社渚镇至2035年不同政策情景下村镇主要地类变化差异明显:水田面积在耕地保护和现状发展情景下稳定增长,但经济优先情景与生态保护情景下出现增长缓慢的情况;采矿用地在耕地保护与生态保护情景下减少较快;镇建设用地在经济优先和耕地保护情景下增长较快,但在现状发展情景和生态保护情景中面积增长较慢或面积减少。研究表明,镇域村镇土地利用变化SD模型既能有效地模拟不同情景下土地利用变化情况,还可演绎土地利用与社会经济系统之间的复杂非线性关系,有利于测算村镇资源环境承载力与政策模拟调控。

This paper analyzes the land-use change in Shezhu Town,Liyang City,Jiangsu Province for many years by using the transfer matrix method,explores the resource and environmental carrying capacity and land-use change mode of villages and towns,reveals the coupling relationship between land-use change mode and socio-economic system,and constructs the SD model of land-use change of villages and towns by using the method of system dynamics.With different policy scenarios by 2035,the changes of primary land types of Shezhu Town are obvious.The paddy field increases steadily under the scenarios of cultivated land protection and current development,but the growth is slower under the scenarios of economic priority and ecological protection.The mining land decreases rapidly under the scenarios of cultivated land protection and ecological protection.The construction land of the town increases rapidly under the economic priority scenario and cultivated land protection scenario,but the area increases slowly or decreases in the current development scenario and ecological protection scenario.This study shows that the SD model can not only effectively simulate the land-use change under different scenarios,but also deduce the complex nonlinear relationship between land-use and socio-economic system,which is conducive to measuring the resource and environmental carrying capacity of villages and towns and policy simulation regulation.