仓储配送与第三方智能快递柜协作机制的演化博弈分析

Evolutionary Game Analysis of Cooperation Mechanism of Warehousing and Distribution and Third-party Smart Express Cabinet

通过对现阶段仓储配送与智能快递柜的使用情况进行调研分析,发现其使用频率受到仓储配送速度、消费者意愿等因素的综合影响,而现有的仓储配送与第三方快递柜合作策略无法解决现阶段配送矛盾。基于仓储配送、快递柜、消费者博弈提出三方博弈模型,探究智能快递柜与仓储配送合作情况下各博弈主体的参与策略,然后根据实际算例,用Matlab进行仿真博弈分析。研究结果表明:当仓储配送与智能快递柜合作超额收益大于合作总成本时,双方将有较大积极性展开合作;合作概率与双方初始合作意愿呈现正相关关系;可以通过调整合作超额利益,使双方达成最佳收益模式;采用合理费用分配机制与风险退出机制,有利于建立合作关系,实现协同共赢。最后,针对政府的相关措施提出了建议。

Based on the investigation and analysis of the use of warehousing and distribution and smart express cabinet at the present stage,its usage frequency is comprehensively affected by warehousing and distribution speed,consumer willingness and other factors,while the existing cooperation strategy of warehousing and distribution and third-party express cabinet can not solve the distribution contradiction in the present.A three-party game model was proposed based on warehousing and distribution,express cabinet and consumer,and the participation strategies of each subject in the case of cooperation between smart express cabinet and warehousing and distribution were explored.Simulation game analysis was conducted with Matlab according to actual calculation examples.The results show that when the excess profit of the cooperation between warehousing express and smart express cabinet is greater than the total cost of cooperation,both sides will have more enthusiasm to carry out cooperation;the cooperation probability is positively correlated with the initial cooperation intention of both parties.Both parties can reach the best profit model by adjusting the excess profit of cooperation.Adopting reasonable cost distribution mechanism and risk withdrawal mechanism is beneficial to establish cooperative relationship and achieve win-win cooperation.Finally,some suggestions for the government are put forward.