基于改进EVENT模型的配对进近碰撞风险研究

Research on Collision Risk of Paired Approach Based on Improved EVENT Model

针对我国枢纽机场运行效率降低、机场拥挤,容量饱和以及航空公司成本大幅度增加等问题,引入近距平行跑道配对进近运行模式。为了建立更加精确更加适合实际飞行的配对进近风险评估模型,本文借鉴EVENT模型思想,将碰撞盒改进为椭球体碰撞盒,考虑3°偏角进近方式,建立碰撞风险评估模型。通过分析碰撞盒穿越间隔面的运动过程,得到不同阶段的碰撞盒体积以及总碰撞盒体积;通过分析建立模型碰撞盒体积与原模型碰撞盒体积的比值,得到所建模型的碰撞风险计算公式。通过对上海虹桥机场的近距平行跑道进行碰撞风险评估模型建立与分析,计算碰撞风险公式。结果表明:改进后的模型的碰撞盒体积减少,更契合实际飞机几何尺寸,更具有现实意义。本次对于上海虹桥机场的改进的评估模型的风险评估值满足国内安全目标水平,且未改进前模型的评估值与2020年的事故率预测值相比,改进的评估模型更加与预测值接近,更加精确,且更加准确预测未来安全目标水平,因此更加安全。

In order to solve the problems such as the decrease of operation efficiency of hub airports,congestion of airports,saturation of capacity and substantial increase of airlines'costs,a close parallel runway pairing approach operation mode is introduced.In order to establish a more accurate and more suitable for the actual flight of the paired approach riskmodel,this paper uses for reference.In the EVENT model,the collision box is improved to ellipsoid collision box,and the collision risk model is established considering the approach model of 3° deflection angle.By analyzing the motion process of the collision box passing through the interval surface,the volume of the collision box at different stages and the total volume of the collision box are obtained;by analyzing and establishing the ratio of the volume of the collision box of the model to that of the original model,the calculation formula of the collision risk of the model is obtained.Through the establishment and analysis of the collision risk model of Shanghai Hongqiao Airport's short distance parallel runway,the collision risk formula is calculated.The results show that:The volume of the collision box of the improved model is reduced,which is more suitable for the actual aircraft geometry,and has more practical significance.The risk assessment value of the improved assessment model for Shanghai Hongqiao Airport meets the domestic safety target level,and together with the evaluation value of the model before improvement,compared with the predicted value of accident rate in 2020,the improved assessment model is more close to the predicted value,more accurate,and more accurate to predict the future safety target level,so it is safer.