国际视角下部门杠杆率动态调整的驱动因素及可持续性研究

Research on the Driving Factors and Sustainability of the Dynamic Adjustment of Sector Leverage Ratio From the International Perspective

本文基于宏观经济基本原理,搭建一个反映居民、企业、政府三部门通过要素供求、政策调控相互关联的动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟分析主要国家部门杠杆率动态调整的驱动因素,最后利用41个国家1960~2018年的非平衡面板数据,实证研究不同部门加杠杆的可持续性。基于理论推导与实证分析,本文认为需要以系统化、网络化和交互影响视角来观察和分析我国杠杆率的演化,努力避免债务"脱实向虚",切实做到"开正门、堵暗道",防范部门杠杆失衡风险。

This paper firstly systematically combs the the empirical facts about the Dynamic Adjustment of sectoral leverage in major countries,and then builds a DSGE model that reflects the interrelationship of residents,enterprises and government through supply and demand of factors and policy regulation,and simulates and analyzes the economic effects of the Dynamic Adjustment of sectoral leverage in major countries.Finally,the paper studies the sustainability of Increasing leverage leverage among different sectors,using the unbalanced panel data of 41 countries from 1960 to 2018.Based on the theoretical derivation and empirical analysis above,the paper believes that it is necessary to observe and analyze the evolution of the leverage in our country from a systematic,networked and interactive perspective,and we should strive to stop debt capital being distracted from their intended purpose,keep the front gate open and block side doors in real earnest and prevent the risk of sectoral leverage imbalance.