人口老龄化、农业技术创新与乡村产业升级的互动关系

Interaction of Population Aging,Agricultural Technology Innovation and Rural Industry Upgrading

人口老龄化是当前中国乡村产业升级面临的挑战之一。乡村产业升级是乡村产业振兴战略的基础,农业技术创新是实现乡村产业升级之芯。理清人口老龄化、农业技术创新与乡村产业升级之间的关系,可为政府制定切实有效的乡村振兴战略提供现实依据。基于中国1997—2018年的时间序列数据,构建自回归模型检验了我国人口老龄化、农业技术创新与乡村产业升级之间的互动关系。结果表明,人口老龄化、农业技术创新会推动乡村产业升级。虽然短期内,人口老龄化的加剧会对乡村产业升级与农业技术创新产生不利影响;但长期来看,人口老龄化显著推动了农业技术创新水平,并对乡村产业升级产生了积极影响。据此结论,给出了引导老龄人再就业、倡导老龄人正确消费观和重视农业技术创新3点政策建议。

The aging of population is one of the challenges facing China′s rural industrial upgrading.Rural industrial upgrading is the foundation for rural industrial revitalization strategy,and agricultural technological innovation is the core of rural industrial upgrading.A clear understanding of the relationship among population aging,agricultural technological innovation and rural industrial upgrading can provide a practical basis for government to formulate effective rural revitalization strategy.Based on the time series data of China from 1997 to 2018,this paper constructs an autoregression model to test the interaction between population aging,agricultural technological innovation,and rural industrial upgrading in China.The results showed that population aging and agricultural technological innovation would promote the upgrading of rural industry.Although the aggravation of population aging in the short term will had a negative impact on rural industrial upgrading and agricultural technological innovation;but in the long run,the aging of the population had significantly promoted agricultural technological innovation and had a positive impact on the upgrading of rural industry.Based on the above conclusions,the paper puts forward three policy suggestions to guide the elderly to re-employ,advocate the correct consumption view of the elderly and attach importance to agricultural technological innovation.