不同时期滨江流域年降雨量与径流量变化趋势及相关关系分析

Analysis of Changing Trend and Correlativity of Annual Precipitation and Runoff Volume of Binjiang River of Different Periods

为分析滨江流域年降雨量与径流量变化趋势和相关关系,以滨江流域唯一控制水文站珠坑站19591972年、19731984年、20092020年的年径流量及其控制范围内8个雨量站对应年份降雨量均值为分析对象,利用时间序列与距平动态,对降雨径流变化趋势做定性分析,并用最小二乘法对不同时期两者关系进行了线性回归分析。结果表明,不同时期降雨径流变化趋势基本一致;19591972年、19731984年滨江流域年径流量与降雨量呈现显著线性相关性,相关系数达0.77以上,而20092020年径流量与降雨量相关性关系不明显,为滨江流域水文情况研究提供了参考。

In order to analyze the changing trend and correlativity of annual precipitation and runoff volume of Binjiang River of different periods,the research selects the annual runoff of Zhukang Station,which is the only control hydrometric station in Binjiang River from 1959 to 1972,from 1973 to 1984,and from 2009 to 2020,and its precipitation mean value in corresponding years in 8 rainfall stations within the control scope as the analysis objects.Time series and anomaly dynamics are used to do qualitative analysis,and least square method is used to do linear regression analysis on the relationship between them in different periods.The results show that changing trend of rainfall runoff is basically consistent;annual runoff and rainfall capacity of Binjiang River from 1959 to 1972,and from 1973 to 1984 show significant linear correlation,with the correlation coefficient reaches more than 0.77.There is no statistically significant difference in the correlation of annual runoff and rainfall capacity from 2009 to 2020.These provide references for the research of hydrologic regime in Binjiang River.