摘要
为探究牛结核病对人群中肺结核传播的影响,根据结核病的传播特点及发病特征,建立了包括牛、高危人群和低危人群3个群体的SEIR结核病动力学模型,计算了模型的基本再生数R_(0),证明了模型中当R_(0)<1时无病平衡点的局部稳定性,以及R_(0)>1时模型的一致持续性。并进一步在模型中加入对牛的宰杀,采用非线性最小二乘法对模型中病牛的数据与2007—2014年乌鲁木齐地区牛结核病阳性的病牛数据进行拟合,计算了不同宰杀率下牛结核病的控制再生数C_(N0)。通过数值模拟得出结论:可通过控制牛到人之间结核病的传播率β_(NH)来有效降低人肺结核的发病率;病牛宰杀率越高,人群发病率越低;高危人群所占比例越大,人群发病率越高。
In order to explore the impact of bovine tuberculosis on the transmission of human pulmonary tuberculosis,according to the transmission characteristics of tuberculosis and its incidence characteristics,a SEIR tuberculosis kinetic model including bovine,high-risk groups and low-risk groups is established,and the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated and the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium point when R_(0)<1 is proved and the consistent persistence of the model when R_(0)>1 is discussed.The role of slaughter infected bovine is considered in the model.The data of sick bovine in the model is fitted with the data of bovine that are positive for tuberculosis in Urumqi from 2007 to 2014 using the nonlinear least squares method,and the bovine tuberculosis under different slaughter ratios is calculated.The control reproduction number is given.Through numerical simulation,it is obtained that the incidence of tuberculosis in the population can be effectively reduced by controlling the transmission rate of tuberculosis from bovine to humanβ_(NH);the impact of the slaughter rate of sick bovine on the incidence of population is discussed.The higher the slaughter rate is,the lower the population incidence is and the larger the proportion of high-risk groups is,the higher the population incidence is.
作者
许传青
韩笑颖
张宗豪
黄晓彤
崔景安
XU Chuanqing;HAN Xiaoying;ZHANG Zonghao;HUANG Xiaotong;CUI Jingan(School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 100044)
出处
《北京建筑大学学报》
2021年第4期94-102,共9页
Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(11871093)。
关键词
牛结核病
再生数
高危人群
数据拟合
bovine tuberculosis
reproduction number
high-risk population
data fitting