临清市近60年气温初日变化趋势分析

Analysis on the Variation Trend of Temperature at the Beginning Date in Linqing City in Recent 60 Years

为充分了解本地的热量资源,利用临清市国家气象观测站1961-2020年的逐日平均气温资料,应用统计分析方法,分析了临清市≥0、≥3、≥5、≥7和≥10℃的气温初日日序特征。结果表明:近60年临清市≥0、≥3、≥5、≥7和≥10℃的气温线性趋势较为平缓,但均呈提前趋势,表明临清市的气温逐年上升,与全球变暖的大环境相符合。以10年为周期,2011-2020年气温初日变化趋势有较为明显的提前趋势;20年周期的变化趋势中,1981-2000年气温初日提前的趋势较为明显。由此得出,临清市近60年气温变化总体呈增长趋势,但变化较为平缓。

In order to fully understand the local thermal resources,to improve the level of meteorological service for grassroots agricultural production,the study used the daily average temperature data of Linqing meteorological station for 60 years from 1961 to 2020,and applied statistical analysis methods to analyze the characteristics of the first diurnal sequence of temperatures≥0,≥3,≥5,≥7 and≥10℃in Linqing City.The results showed that in the past 60 years,although the linear trend of temperature≥0,≥3,≥5,≥7 and≥10℃in Linqing City is relatively flat,they all show an earlier trend.It indicates that the temperature in Linqing City is gradually rising,which is in line with the global warming environment.With a 10-year cycle,the first day of temperature change from 2011 to 2020 has a more obvious trend in advance.Among the changes of the 20-year cycle,the first day of temperature from 1981 to 2000 has a more obvious trend in advance.Therefore,the overall temperature change in Linqing City in the past 60 years has shown an increasing trend,but the change is relatively gentle.