“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色发展绩效及驱动因素研究

Efficiency Measurement and Driving Factors of Green Development for Countries along the“Belt and Road”

随着“一带一路”倡议的稳步推进,沿线国家的绿色发展成为倡议的重点之一。运用全局超效率SBM模型测算“一带一路”沿线35个国家的绿色发展绩效,分析其时空演变特征和空间相关性,在此基础上构建空间杜宾模型对“一带一路”沿线国家绿色发展绩效的驱动因素和空间溢出效应进行探讨。结果表明:沿线国家绿色发展绩效总体呈现“W型”的时序变化特征,以及“西亚北非地区>南亚地区>中东欧地区>东南亚地区>中亚地区”的区域差异特征;从直接效应来看,经济发展水平和开放程度对沿线国家绿色发展效率产生显著促进作用,城镇化水平和基础设施建设对沿线国家绿色发展效率产生显著抑制作用;从空间溢出效应来看,经济发展水平和基础设施建设存在正向溢出效应,产业结构、城镇化水平和开放程度具有负向溢出效应。因此,应该充分考虑“一带一路”沿线国家绿色发展的空间相关性,加强国家之间新能源和技术的合作,优化调整产业结构,重视人力资本的作用,引进绿色投资,推动“一带一路”沿线国家的绿色发展。

With the steady progress of the“Belt and Road”initiative,the green development of countries along the route has become one of the priorities of the initiative.This paper adopts the global super-efficiency SBM model to measure the green development performance of 35 countries along the“Belt and Road”,and analyze the spatial-temporal evolution as well as the spatial correlation.On this basis,the paper uses the Spatial Durbin Model to explore the spatial correlation and driving factors of green development efficiency of the“Belt and Road”countries.The results show the following findings.The overall trend of green development efficiency of the countries along the route is a“W”shape,and the regional differences of“Western Asia and North Africa area>South Asia area>Central and Eastern Europe area>Southeast Asia area>Central Asia area”are obvious.From the perspective of direct effects,economic development and openness have a significant role in promoting the efficiency of green development in countries along the route,and urbanization and infrastructure construction have significant inhibitory effects.From the perspective of spatial spillover effects,economic development and infrastructure construction have positive spillover effects.Urbanization,industrial structure and openness have negative spillover effects.Therefore,we should fully consider the spatial relevance of the green development of countries along the“Belt and Road”,strengthen cooperation in new energy and technology between countries,optimize the industrial structure,attach importance to the role of human capital,introduce green investment,and promote the green“Belt and Road”.