人口老龄化对企业出口国内增加值率的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Population Aging on the Domestic Added Value Rate of Enterprise Export

中国经济正面临出口国内增加值率偏低和人口老龄化的双向挑战。基于2000~2013年中国微观企业数据,文章研究了人口老龄化对企业出口国内增加值率的影响。结果显示,人口老龄化会负向影响中国企业出口国内增加值率,且在克服内生性问题、进行多种稳健性检验后,这一结论依然成立。同时,这种负向影响主要是由进口中间品对国内中间品及劳动力的替代所导致的,而人口老龄化的成本效应对出口国内增加值率的不利影响相对较小,并且从贸易结构变动来看,人口老龄化并未通过降低企业从事加工贸易的比重,进而获得总体企业平均出口国内增加值率的“被动”提升。进一步研究还表明上述负向影响在混合贸易企业、劳动密集型企业、外资企业与人口净流出地区企业上体现得更为明显。

Chinese economy is facing the dual challenge of low export domestic added value rate and aging population.Based on the data of Chinese micro enterprises from 2000 to 2013,this paper studies the impact of population aging on the domestic value added rate of Chinese enterprises’exports.The results show that population aging has a negative im⁃pact on the domestic value added rate of Chinese enterprises’exports,and this conclusion is still valid after overcoming endogenous problems and carrying out a variety of robustness tests.Meanwhile,the paper also finds that this negative im⁃pact is mainly caused by the substitution of imported intermediate goods for domestic intermediate goods and labor,while the cost effect of population aging on the increase of the domestic value added rate of Chinese enterprises’exports is rel⁃atively small.Moreover,from the perspective of trade structure change,the aging population has not achieved a“pas⁃sive”increase in the average export domestic added value rate of enterprises by reducing the proportion of enterprises en⁃gaged in processing trade.Further research also shows that the above negative effects are more obvious in mixed trade en⁃terprises,labor-intensive enterprises,foreign enterprises and enterprises from regions with net outflow of population.