大型主题公园客流规模预测方法研究--以西安童世界项目为例

Research on Forecasting Method of Passenger Flow Scale in Large Theme Park of Xi'an Children's World Park Project

为了研究大型主题公园客流规模预测方法,以西安童世界乐园客流规模预测为例,提出大型主题公园客流规模预测基本分析方法。从区域旅游市场总体规模预测着手,基于人口、经济、交通三大因素分析客源空间分布特征,引入与产品特性密切相关的市场渗透率指标,预测了主题公园年客流总规模。

In order to study the forecasting method of passenger flow in large theme parks,taking the passenger flow forecast of Xi'an Children's World Park as an example,the basic analysis method of passenger flow forecasting in large theme park is proposed.The spatial distribution characteristics of passenger flow are analyzed from three factors of population,economy and traffic by starting from the prediction of overall scale if regional tourist market.The market penetration indicators closely related to the product characteristics are introduced to forecast the total annual passenger flow of theme park.