基于Verhulst模型的公立医院次均费用变化趋势及预测研究

Predicting Average Cost of Public Hospitals Using Verhulst Model

目的分析我国公立医院次均费用变化情况,并预测各级公立医院次均门诊与住院费用,为公立医院政策改革提供参考建议。方法采用描述性统计方法分析公立医院及其构成的三级医院、二级医院和一级医院的均次卫生费用指标变化趋势,并采用Verhulst模型构建相应的门诊与住院次均费用预测模型。结果公立医院次均门诊与住院费用逐年上升,年增长率整体呈下降趋势;构建的8个Verhulst模型精度评价都是优秀,预测2019-2025年各级公立医院次均门诊与住院费用持续增加。结论一方面,灰色Verhulst模型能适用于公立医院次均费用预测研究,且预测精度优于GM(1,1)模型;另一方面,公立医院整体控费效果较好,但预测结果显示需注重各级医院之间的协调发展。

Objective To analyze the change of mean expenses of public hospitals in China,predict the trend of mean expenses of outpatient and inpatient,in order to provide reference recommendations for policy reform of public hospitals.Methods Descriptive statistical methods were used to analyze public hospitals and their composition about the third-level hospitals,second-level hospitals and first-level hospitals,and their forecast models of outpatient and inpatient mean expenditures were constructed.Results The average outpatient and inpatient expenditures of public hospitals increases year by year,and the overall annual growth rate decreased;the accuracy of the eight Verhulst models constructed are excellent,and it is predicted that the average outpatient and inpatient costs of public hospitals were continue to increase from 2019 to 2025.Conclusion The Verhulst model can be applied to public hospital average cost prediction studies and precision of prediction is better than GM(1,1)model.On the other hand,the forecast results show that more attention should be paid to the coordinated development of public hospitals.