未来30年太空安全发展趋势及影响

Trends and impacts of space security for future 30 years

今年以来,美国智库大西洋理事会、航天基金会与毕马威国际接连发布《未来30年美国太空安全战略》《引领太空:国防太空构想》两份研究报告,对未来太空安全发展进行了分析预测。本文在综合分析研判的基础上,提出人类活动越来越依赖太空、资源争夺越来越走向太空、国家安全越来越倚重太空的发展趋势,认为人类太空活动目的正从“探索发现”向“商业活跃”和“安全主导”过渡,并加快形成军、民、商三位一体的太空发展格局,国防太空领域创新正在持续加速,地月空间将开辟太空经济与军事新领地。

In 2021,US Atlantic Council and The Space Foundation&KPMG successively released two reports titled The Future of Security in Space:A Thirty-Year US Strategy and Navigating Space:A Vision for the Space Domain,providing an in-depth analysis and prediction on future space development.Based on a comprehensive investigation,this paper proposes three development trends in space of an increasing dependence of human activity on space,a transfer of resource competition battlefield to space,and an increasing reliance of national security on space.The primary purpose of human space activity is gradually changing from exploration to commerce and security,accelerating the formation of a space military-civil-commerce trinity.The innovation in defense space field is also expediting,and the cislunar space will blaze a new trail in space economy and military.