基于HHM-RFRM的实弹发射风险分析研究

Risk analysis of missile launch based on HHM-RFRM

实弹发射是复杂的系统性军事训练活动,在实施前要对其进行风险评估,实施的全过程中要进行风险管理,首要工作是运用科学方法进行风险分析。本文运用系统工程的思想,针对实弹发射这一复杂系统活动,识别得到环境、交通、技术、管理、人员、任务、装备、保障和通信这9类风险情景,进一步分析建立了实弹发射风险等级全息模型(HHM)。在此基础上,运用风险过滤、评级与管理框架(RFRM),通过初步情景过滤、双重标准过滤、多重标准过滤、主要风险情景的定量评级等步骤对以上风险情景进行过滤分析,得到了环境因素、装备因素和管理因素这3种最重要的风险因素。通过综合运用HHM和RFRM方法分析出的风险因素,能够为决策者进行有针对性的风险评估和风险管理提供一定理论支持。

Missile launch is a complex and systematic military training activity.Risk assessment should be carried out before implementation and risk management should be carried out during the whole implementation process.The primary task is to use scientific methods to conduct risk analysis.In this paper,based on the thought of systems engineering,nine risk scenarios,including environment,traffic,technology,management,personnel,mission,equipment,support and communication,are identified for the complex system activity of missile launch,and the risk Hierarchical Holographic Modeling(HHM)of missile launch is further analyzed and established.On this basis,the Risk Filtering,Rating and Management framework(RFRM)is used to filter and analyze the above risk scenarios through the steps of preliminary scenario filtering,double standard filtering,multiple standard filtering,and quantitative rating of main risk scenarios.The three most important risk factors as environment factor,equipment factor and management factor are obtained.The risk factors analyzed by comprehensive use of HHM and RFRM methods can provide theoretical support for the next decision makers to carry out targeted risk assessment and risk management.