最低收购价政策对粮食供给与农民收益的影响分析——基于双重差分法的实证检验

The Impact of Floor Price Policies on Grain Supply and Farmers’Income——Empirical Test Based on Differences-in-Differences

从保障粮食供给安全和农民收益角度出发,以粮食最低收购价政策作为准自然实验,利用双重差分法分别考察该政策对小麦和稻谷的播种面积、产量、价格波动与种植收益的影响。结果显示,粮食最低收购价政策对小麦和稻谷的播种面积具有显著正向影响,有效支撑了国家粮食供给安全;对小麦总产量具有显著增产效应,有助于实现小麦增产高产、提升粮食生产能力;能够有效减少小麦和稻谷的价格波动,国内外粮价倒挂明显收窄,相比之下,稻谷价格波动受该项政策的影响更加突出;对小麦和稻谷的种植收益具有显著负向影响,对稳定并提高粮食生产积极性的激励不足。中国粮食市场发育仍然处于自发调节、以家庭经营为主的组织方式,为保障国家粮食安全,建议保持小麦最低收购价政策框架,增强政策弹性,实施渐进式改革。

From the perspective of ensuring the security of grain supply and farmers’income,this paper used floor price policies on grains as a quasi-experiment,and the differences-in-differences method to investigate the impact of the policies onplanting area,total product,sales price fluctuations,and planting income of wheat and rice.The results showed that the policies had a significant positive impact on the planting area of wheat and rice,which effectively supports the national food supply security;they had a significant increase in the total output of wheat,increasing wheat production and grain production capacity;they effectively reduce the sales price fluctuations of wheat and rice and significantly narrow the domestic and foreign grain price inversions.In contrast,rice price fluctuations were more prominently affected by the policies;they had a significant negative impact on the planting income of wheat and rice,and insufficient incentive to stabilize and improve the enthusiasm of grain production.The development of China’s grain market is still in the mode of spontaneous regulation and family management.In order to ensure national food security,it is suggested to maintain the policies framework,enhance policy flexibility and implement progressive reform.