中国高温热浪对碳排放量的响应

The response of heatwave to carbon emission in China

基于中国碳核算数据及气象资料,分析了8大经济区(30个省份)近20a来(1997~2017年)碳排放量和高温热浪的本底变化特征,探讨了不同区域高温热浪对碳排放量的多尺度响应关系.结果表明:(1)研究时段内,8个经济区的碳排放量均显著增加,增速最大和最小的经济区分别为黄河中游和西北;(2)不同级别(轻度、中度和重度)高温热浪发生频次呈现出轻度>中度>重度的特征,且轻度级别发生频次越多的地区,中度和重度高温热浪的发生概率越大;(3)相较于其它级别,轻度高温热浪开始日期最早、结束日期最晚,即持续期最长,总体上,南方地区高温热浪持续期远高于北方地区;(4)气候温暖地区高温热浪与碳排放量的变化一致性主要体现在年际尺度上,而寒冷地区更趋向于年代际尺度,即温暖地区高温热浪对碳排放量的响应更为强烈;(5)不同经济区高温热浪持续期在不同级别上对碳排放量的响应差异显著,但总体上呈现出高排放对持续期延长的促进作用.

Based on the Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets(CEADs)and meteorological observation,this study aimed to analyze the relationship and change features between carbon emission and heatwaves in eight economic regions(30 provinces)of China during 1997~2017.Moreover,the multi-scale response of heatwaves to carbon emission in different regions was investigated.The results indicate that:i)During the study period,carbon emission in the eight economic regions increased significantly.The middle reaches of the Yellow River and the northwest economic regions had the highest and lowest growth rates,respectively;ii)the severer heatwave appeared less often in term of rate recurrence.The regions with mild and often heatwave encountered the more frequent moderate and severe event.iii)The mild level of heatwave had the earliest onset,termination dates and longer duration comparing other levels;iv)The high consistency of heatwaves and carbon emission in the interannual scale was found in the warm regions,while the cold regions possessed the high consistency in decadal scales.This spatial pattern implied that the response of heatwaves to carbon emission was more robust in warmer regions;v)The response of heatwave duration to carbon emission in different economic zones was significant at different levels.In general,higher emissions leaded to prolonging heatwaves.The results provide scientific support for domestic carbon emission management and regional sustainable development programs.