基于VAR模型的海洋生态与海洋经济发展相关性研究——以渤海沿岸天津市为例

Research on the Correlation Between Marine Ecological Conditions and Marine Economic Development in Tianjin Based on VAR Model

海洋经济高速发展背景下,沿海城市环境压力日趋增加,海洋生态遭受不同程度的破坏,近海城市空气质量遭受牵连,我国亟需探寻能促进海洋生态环境与海洋经济水平协调发展的有效方法。本文基于渤海沿岸城市天津市2001—2017年的面板数据,构建VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解探究模型的动态特征。研究表明,海洋生态对海洋经济存在较大冲击,且二者发展相互制约,存在最优值点。以天津市为例,我国在制定海洋经济策略的同时需加强构建科学开发体系,在保证生态环境质量的同时,推动经济建设,促进二者协调发展,不断优化城市海洋经济竞争力引导海洋经济与海洋生态健康可持续发展。

Under the background of the rapid development of marine economy,the coastal cities in China are suffering from the increasing of environmental pressure,the damaging of marine ecology to varying degrees and the decreasing of air quality.Therefore,China urgently needs to find good solutions for the coordinated development of marine ecological environment and marine economic level.Based on the panel data in Tianjin,a coastal city around the Bohai Sea,obtained from 2001 to 2007,the VAR model is established and its dynamic features are investigated thoroughly by using pulse response function and variance decomposition.The results indicate that marine ecology has a great impact on marine economy,and the development of the two restricts each other,with an optimal value point being present.Taking Tianjin City as the example,the construction of a scientific development system needs to be strengthened while formulating marine economic strategies in China.And while ensuring the quality of marine ecological environment,not only the economic construction but also the coordinated development of the two should be promoted and the competitiveness of the urban marine economy should be optimized continuously,thus guiding the healthy and sustainable development of the marine economy of the city.