中西部地区产业发展与碳排放空间效应研究

Study on the Spatial Effects of Industrial Development and Carbon Emission in Central and Western Regions of China

中西部地区是我国重要的生态屏障区域,缓解经济发展需求与环境保护双重胁迫压力尤为至关重要。为此,基于2000—2018年中西部地区社会经济发展数据集,构建空间滞后模型,模拟产业发展与碳排放之间的空间作用关系。结果表明:(1)中西部区域碳排放持续增长且存在显著的时空差异性及正的空间溢出效应,即出现"高—高"和"低—低"空间分布。(2)产业资源配置效率(TI)及产业结构高级化(TS)对碳排放具有显著的减缓作用,现阶段优化TI比TS升级对减缓碳排放更有效,其直接和间接的边际效应强度分别达41.2%和32.2%、8.0%和6.1%,远大于经济发展水平和人口规模增长对碳排放的边际效应强度。(3)为此,中西部地区应加强TI和TS优化升级,特别是近期内产业资源配置效率优化,进而解决中西部区域经济发展需求与生态环境双重胁迫压力,减少碳排放。

The central and western regions are important ecological barrier regions in China,and it is particularly important to alleviate the dual coercive pressure of economic development needs and environmental protection.Therefore,this paper builds a spatial lag model based on the data set of socio-economic development in the central and western regions from 2000 to 2018 to simulate the spatial relationship between industrial development and carbon emissions.The results show that:(1) Carbon emissions in the central and western regions had continued to grow,with significant temporal and spatial differences and positive spatial spillover effects,which shows “high-high” and “low-low” spatial distributions.(2) Efficiency of industrial resource allocation (TI) and industrial structure upgrading (TS) have a significant mitigation effect on carbon emissions.At this stage,it is more effective to optimize TI in mitigating carbon emissions than upgrading TS.The direct and indirect marginal effects are different.They reached 41.2%,32.2%,8.0%,and 6.1%,which are far greater than the marginal effect intensity of economic development and population growth on carbon emissions.(3) The central and western regions should pay attention to optimization of TI and TS,especially the optimization of the efficiency of industrial resource allocation shortly,to solve the dual pressure of economic development in the central and western regions and the ecological environment and reduce carbon emissions.