智能工业与区域能源可持续协同转型的时空演化研究

Study on the Spatial-temporal Evolution of the Synergetic Transformation Between Intelligent Industry and Regional Energy Sustainability

智能工业与能源可持续转型存在互动效应,二者协同转型更有利于加快传统工业转型升级。在构建智能工业转型指数(IITI)和区域能源可持续转型指数(RETI)的基础上,基于因子分析和耦合协调方法对智能工业与区域能源可持续协同转型水平进行测度,研究2007—2018年我国30个省份协同转型的时空分异特征,并基于探索性空间数据分析方法分析了协同转型的空间关联格局演化特征。结果表明:2007—2018年我国智能工业与区域能源可持续协同转型水平虽呈现出不断提升的趋势,但整体水平不高,2018年初级协调及以上水平的省份仅占20%,处于失调状态省份高达40%;协同转型呈现了"东部沿海+长江经济带"的"T型"格局,"虹吸效应"使得欠发达地区形成同步滞后现象;"南强北弱"特征较为明显,北方省份普遍低低聚集,协同转型形势严峻;未来应充分重视智能工业和区域能源可持续转型的高耦合关系,发挥发达地区的"辐射作用",引导资本、人才、技术向转型滞后地区流动,避免出现"锈带化"危机。

There exists an interaction effect between intelligent industry and energy sustainable transformation,and their synergetic development is conducive to accelerating the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. On the basis of constructing Intelligent Industry Transformation Index( IITI) and Regional Energy Transformation Index( RETI),the synergetic transformation levels between intelligent industry and regional energy sustainability in 30 provinces from 2007 to 2018 are measured by using the approaches of factor analysis and coupling coordination analysis. Furthermore,the spatial-temporal synergetic transformation characteristics are studied,and the evolution characteristics of spatial association state of synergetic transformation are analyzed by using the approach of exploratory spatial data analysis. The results show that the synergetic transformation level was constantly improving from 2007 to 2018. However,it was still at a low level on the whole. Only 20% of the provinces were at the primary coordination or above level in 2018,and the uncoordinated provinces were up to 40%. The phenomenon of " T-shaped" state of " eastern coastal and Yangtze River Economic Belt" emerged during the process of the synergetic transformation,and " Siphon effect" made the underdeveloped areas lag behind. The Southern provinces were better than the North and the Northern provinces were generally in the low-low aggregation state. Therefore,the situation of synergetic transformation remains severe in the North. In the future,more attention should be paid to the high coupling relationship between intelligent industry and regional energy sustainable transformation and efforts shall be made to accelerate the radiation effect of developed areas,and guide the flow of capital,human resource and technology to the areas of lagging transformation in order to avoid the " rust belt" crisis.