气候变化影响了江西省主要农作物产量吗?——基于江西省30年省级数据的实证

Does Climate Change Affect the Production of Major Crops in Jiangxi Province?——An Empirical Study on 30 Years of Provincial Data in Jiangxi Province

为了研究气候变化对江西主要农作物的影响,本文基于江西省1988~2018年的相关数据,运用Mann-Kendall检测、H-P滤波法以及多元回归法分析了江西省气候变化、6大主要农作物产量变化以及气候因素对农作物单产的影响。结果表明:气温升高对江西主要农作物单产均有显著正效应。稻谷和油料作物受气候变化冲击的波动最小;小麦、玉米和薯类受气候变化冲击波动较大。建议江西省保持现有农作物种植结构以及改进田间管理技术以应对气候变化带来的危害。

In order to study the impact of climate change on major crops in Jiangxi Province, this paper analyzed climate change in Jiangxi Province, yield changes of six major crops and the impact of climate factors on yield per unit area of crops by using Mann_Kendall test, H-P filter and multiple regression method based on the relevant data of Jiangxi Province from 1988 to 2018. The results showed that: The temperature rise has a significant positive effect on the yield per unit area of main crops in Jiangxi Province. Rice and oil crops have the least fluctuation in the impact of climate change. Wheat, corn and potato are subject to great fluctuations due to climate change. It is suggested that Jiangxi Province maintain the existing crop planting structure and improve field management techniques to cope with the hazards of climate change.