安徽省粮食产量时空格局变化及安全评价

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Change and Safety Evaluation of Grain Yield in Anhui Province

粮食安全是国家战略安全的重要保障,探明不同区域粮食产量时空分布对粮食安全保障意义重大。基于1998~2017年安徽省各地级市粮食统计数据,利用线性趋势函数定量分析安徽省粮食产量时空格局变化,运用产量波动系数及人均粮食占有量对安徽省粮食安全进行评价。结果表明:近20年来,安徽省粮食产量经历了明显的波动下降和稳定提升两大阶段;安徽省粮食产量年变化率由波动剧烈逐渐过渡到相对稳定;安徽省粮食结构中水稻的优势地位逐渐下降,由1998年的54.97%下降到2017年的42.3%,小麦即将取代水稻成为安徽省第一大粮食作物;安徽省粮食生产空间分异明显,以长江为界,长江以北地区粮食贡献率高,长江沿线及长江以南地区粮食贡献率普遍偏低。分种类来看,水稻在皖中地区分布较多,而小麦和玉米在皖北地区集中度高。安徽省粮食产量波动系数只有15%的年份属于正常水平,粮食安全问题严峻,但以人均粮食占有量为指标,安徽省粮食产量安全区域稳定增加,安全程度较高。

Food security is an important guarantee of national strategic security. It is of great significance to explore the spatial and temporal distribution of grain yield in different regions. Based on the grain statistics of Anhui provinces from 1998 to 2017, the temporal and spatial pattern of grain production in Anhui Province was quantitatively analyzed by using linear trend function, and the food security in Anhui Province was evaluated by using the fluctuation coefficient of grain production and the per capita grain occupation. The results showed that in the past 20 years,the grain output of Anhui Province has undergone two stages of obvious fluctuation decline and steady increase;the annual variation rate of grain output in Anhui Province has gradually changed from violent fluctuation to relative stability;the dominant position of rice in the grain structure of Anhui Province has gradually declined from 54.97%(1998) to 42.3%(2017). According to the types, the distribution of rice is more in the central part of Anhui Province,while the concentration of wheat and maize is higher in the northern part of Anhui Province;the fluctuation coefficient of grain production in Anhui Province is only 15% of the normal level in the year, and the grain security is low.The whole problem is grim, but with the per capita grain occupancy as the index, the safe area of grain production in Anhui Province has steadily increased, and the degree of security is relatively high.