我国城市房地产风险空间溢出研究--基于35个大中城市的空间面板模型分析

Research on Spatial Spillover of Urban Real Estate Risk in China

以城市房地产风险为研究对象,基于35个大中城市的数据,运用主成分分析法和动态因子模型从房地产开发风险、融资风险、价格风险、库存风险、城市环境风险五个维度科学构建房地产风险综合指数,使用空间面板计量模型检验各城市房地产风险的空间相关性。结果显示,人口增长变动和经济增长变动均会对房地产风险产生负向影响,人口和经济可以作为调控房地产市场风险的基本面因素。房地产风险空间滞后项系数和空间误差项系数均显著为正,说明城市房地产风险会受到邻近城市房地产风险的正向影响,且这种正向溢出效应会在邻近城市间加强。

Taking urban real estate risk as the research object,based on the data of 35 large and medium-sized cities,using principal component analysis and dynamic factor model,this paper scientifically constructs the comprehensive index of real estate risk from the five dimensions of real estate development risk,financing risk,price risk,inventory risk and urban environmental risk,and uses the spatial panel measurement model to test the spatial correlation of real estate risk in each city.The results show that the changes of population growth and economic growth will have a negative impact on the real estate risk.Population and economy can be used as the fundamental factors to regulate the real estate market risk.The spatial lag term coefficient and spatial error term coefficient of real estate risk are significantly positive,indicating that urban real estate risk will be positively affected by the real estate risk of adjacent cities,and this positive spillover effect will be strengthened among adjacent cities.