空间视角下中国在“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI的影响因素分析

Study on the Influencing Factors of Chinese OFDI in Countries along the“Belt and Road”from the Spatial Perspective

本文从空间视角,选取2003—2018年中国在"一带一路"沿线37个国家OFDI数据,构建空间面板模型,实证检验中国在"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI的影响因素。结果显示,中国在"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI存在显著的第三国效应且呈现挤出效应,市场规模和贸易成本是影响中国在"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI的两大最重要因素。进一步分解空间效应后发现,不同解释变量带来的OFDI影响程度并不相同,地区、收入和政治风险的异质性分析结果为中国OFDI的区位选择和空间布局提供新的思考。鉴于此,本文提出中国在"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI的相关结论和启示。

From the spatial perspective,the paper selects Chinese OFDI data in 37 countries along the“Belt and Road”from 2003 to 2018 to construct a spatial panel model to empirically test the influencing factors of Chinese OFDI in the“Belt and Road”countries.The results show that there is a significant third country effect and crowding out effect in OFDI of countries along the“Belt and Road”.It is also found that the market size and the trade costs are the two most important factors affecting OFDI in countries along the“Belt and Road”.Further study after decomposing the spatial effect indicates that different locations and different explanatory variables have different degrees of OFDI impact.The results of the heterogeneity analysis of region,income and political risk also provide new thinking for the location selection and the spatial layout of Chinese OFDI.In view of this,this article presents the conclusions and enlightenment with reagrd to how China can efficiently operate OFDI in the countries along the“Belt and Road”.