新冠防控措施对江苏省淋病流行趋势的影响

The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on trend of gonorrhea prevalence in Jiangsu Province

目的通过时间序列预测模型,评估新冠防控措施对淋病流行趋势的影响。方法收集2010年1月—2020年12月江苏省传染病监测系统中淋病的报告病例数,采用R语言进行自回归移动平均乘积季节(ARIMA)模型构建及验证,卡方检验分析疫情变化特征。结果淋病AIRMA最适模型为ARIMA(0,1,1),(0,1,1)_(12)。2020年一季度、二季度淋病报告病例数较预测值分别减少59.67%、12.57%。新冠流行主要导致25~44岁年龄组、流动人口、非综合性医疗机构淋病报病数显著下降。结论重大突发公共卫生事件对性病就医具有一定程度的影响。

Objective To estimate the impacts of COVID-19 on gonorrhea prevalence trend by the models of time series forecasting.Methods The case report data of gonorrhea by the web-based Comprehensive Response Information Management System(CRIMS)from Jan 2010 to Dec 2020 were collected.Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was established and verified by R language;the chi-square test was used to analyze the epidemic prevalence dynamic characteristics.Results The optimal model of gonorrhea was ARIMA(0,1,1),(0,1,1)_(12).Compared with the reported case numbers,the forecasted numbers of gonorrhea cases were decreased by 59.67%and 12.57%,respectively in quarter 1 and 2 in 2020.The COVID-19 pandemic mainly led to significant declining numbers of reported gonorrhea cases in groups of 25-44 years old,floating population and non comprehensive medical institutions.Conclusion Major public health emergency has an impact on the medical treatment of sexually transmitted diseases.