广东省农业发展优势度综合评价方法及其空间特征研究

Study on comprehensive evaluation method and spatial characteristics of agricultural development dominance in Guangdong Province

客观评价农业发展优势,并对症施策,有助于促进农业高质高效发展和乡村全面振兴。本文从自然地理本底、农业生产环境、农业质量效益、经营组织效益、生态协调能力、产业发展潜力等6个维度构建农业发展优势度评价指标体系,借助熵权法、机器学习神经网络算法等评价并揭示了2019年广东省县域农业发展优势度及其空间特征。结果表明:2019年广东省农业发展综合优势度空间差异明显,珠江三角洲平原区县域的农业优势最突出。6个分项中,自然地理本底、农业生产环境和生态协调能力是主要贡献因素。其中,自然地理本底和经营组织效益均表现为粤西南方向最优;农业生产环境表现为粤东北方向最优;产业发展潜力表现为粤东南方向较优;农业质量效益、生态协调能力与农业综合优势度整体空间分布相似,但农业质量效益不再是农业发展优势度的关键影响因素,粤中南和东北方向的生态协调优势突出。因此,建议结合农业分项与综合优势,未来在珠江三角洲平原区以及粤西南、粤东南和粤东北分别形成现代都市农业区、高效农业区、特色农业区和生态农业区,助力农业高质量发展。

Objectively evaluating the advantages of agricultural development and taking relevant measures are crucial to promoting high-quality and efficient development of agriculture,as well as to all-round revitalization of rural areas.This paper constructs a comprehensive index system of agricultural development advantage degree from six dimensions,including natural endowment,agricultural production environment,agricultural quality benefit,management and organization benefit,ecological coordination ability,and industrial development potential,to evaluate and reveal the county agricultural development dominance and its spatial characteristics in Guangdong Province in 2019 by the entropy weight method and machine learning neural network algorithm.Results show that:the spatial difference of the comprehensive advantage of agricultural development is obvious,which is the most prominent in the Pearl River Delta plain.Among the six dimensions of agricultural development advantages,the natural endowment,agricultural production environment,and ecological coordination ability are the main contributing factors.As far as the spatial distribution direction of six dimensions,the natural endowment and management organization benefit are the best in southwest Guangdong,the deviation trend of southwest is intensified,the agricultural production environment is the best in northeast Guangdong,and the industrial development potential is the best in southeast Guangdong.The overall spatial distribution of agricultural quality benefit and ecological coordination ability is similar as agricultural development comprehensive advantage,but the effect of quality benefit on the comprehensive development of agriculture no longer plays a key role.As to the advantage of ecological coordination ability,it is relatively prominent in the south central and northeast of Guangdong Province.According to the results above,this paper suggests that modern urban agricultural area,efficient agricultural area,characteristic agricultural area,and ecological agricultural area should be formed respectively in the Pearl River Delta plain,southwest,southeast and northeast of Guangdong,to promote the high-quality development of agriculture.