市场化改革背景下我国玉米供给反应实证研究——基于2008—2019年东北三省省级面板数据

STUDY ON THE SUPPLY RESPONSE OF CHINA’S MAIZE UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF MARKET-ORIENTED REFORM——BASED PROVINCIAL PANEL DATA IN NORTHEAST CHINA FROM 2008 TO 2019

[目的]我国玉米供需形势变化需要国内玉米供给适时作出调整,通过分析玉米供给的影响因素及其背后的农户行为,为国家制定政策并引导农户根据市场需求调整玉米种植决策提出建议。[方法]文章利用2008—2019年辽宁、吉林、黑龙江三省省级玉米播种面积和出售价格的面板数据,加入替代作物比较效益和取消玉米临时收储政策虚拟变量,基于Nerlove模型对玉米供给反应进行实证研究。[结果](1)东北地区玉米短期缺乏价格供给弹性,长期则富有弹性;(2)东北地区玉米播种面积短期内具有一定的刚性;(3)玉米与大豆、水稻的比较效益是影响东北地区农户玉米种植决策的重要因素;(4)取消玉米临时收储政策对东北地区玉米播种面积具有显著的负向影响。[结论]短期内仅通过市场价格变化调整玉米供给能力有限,还需要一些配套支持政策及时引导农户调整种植决策;取消玉米临时收储政策后要加快建立优质优价机制,引导农户种植适应市场需求的玉米品种从而增加种粮收入;通过加大“两区”政策支持,将土地、资金、设备等生产要素向优势产区集中,提升优势产区产能。

The change of supply and demand situation of China's maize needs timely adjustment of domestic corn supply.This paper aims to put forward some suggestions for the country to formulate policies and guide farmers to adjust maize planting decisions according to market demand by analyzing the influencing factors of maize supply and the behavior of farmers behind it.It was to empirically study the supply response of maize in the northeast of China based the Nerlove model by using the provincial panel data of Liaoning,Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces from 2008 to 2019,and adding the virtual variables of comparative benefit of alternative crops and the cancellation of temporary maize storage policy.The results were listed as follows.Firstly,maize was lack of price elasticity in the short term,but elastic in the long term.Secondly,the maize sown area had certain rigidity in the short term in the northeast of China.Thirdly,the comparative benefit of maize to soybean and rice were an important factor affecting farmers'maize planting decision.Finally,the cancellation of temporary maize storage policy had a significant negative effect on maize sown area.Suggestions are given as follows.Firstly,it is limited to adjust the maize supply capacity in the short term.Therefore,some supporting policies are needed,whicn could guide farmers to adjust planting decisions in time.Secondly,it is necessary to speed up the establishment of high quality and high price mechanism after the cancellation of temporary maize storage policy to guide farmers to plant maize varieties suited for the market demand,so as to increase grain income.Finally,the production factors such as land,capital and equipment should be concentrated in the superior production areas by increasing the policy support of"two districts"in order to enhance the production capacity of superior production areas.