养殖户气候适应性行为对提高养殖业生产效率的影响

The effect of farmer adaptation behavior to climate change on the improvement of breeding industry production efficiency

气候变化给当前中国农业生产转型带来严峻挑战,从效率视角分析农户适应气候变化行为具有重要意义。本文探讨养殖户气候适应性行为与养殖业生产效率之间的逻辑关系,并基于中国五省的微观调查数据,采用倾向得分匹配方法与选择纠偏随机前沿生产函数模型(Selectivity-corrected Stochastic Production Frontier model)相结合的实证思路,分析养殖户气候适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响。研究表明:(1)养殖户气候适应性行为能够提高养殖业生产效率,纠正可观测因素与不可观测因素造成的选择性偏差后,适应组养殖户平均养殖业生产效率为0.618,未适应组养殖户的平均养殖业生产效率为0.551。(2)若未考虑选择性偏差,养殖户适应性行为对养殖业生产效率的影响将会错估。研究成果可为推进政府制定农户适应气候变化政策与推动农业生产转型提供有力支持。

The transformation of agricultural production in China is challenged by severe climate change. Therefore, it is significant to discuss the effectiveness of adaptation behavior to climate change of rural households from the perspective of production efficiency. In this paper,first, the logical relationship between the breeder’s adaptation behavior to climate change and the breeding industry production efficiency was taken into a discussion on a theoretical level.And then, on the basis of evidence retrieved from the micro-survey on breeders in five provinces of China, the empirical research method that combines the propensity score matching model and selectivity-corrected stochastic production frontier model was adopted to analyze and figure out the impact of breeder’s adaptation behavior to climate change on breeding industry production efficiency. The research results show that:(1) The breeding industry production efficiency can be significantly improved by breeder’s adaptation behavior to climate change. After the selection basis resulted from the observable factors and unobservable factors were corrected, the average breeding industry production efficiency of the adaptation group was 0.618 while, at the same time, the average breeding industry production efficiency of the non-adaptation group was 0.551.(2) If the selection bias was not taken into consideration,mistakes would occur in the course of the evaluation on the impact of the breeder’s adaptation behavior to climate change on breeding industry production efficiency. Hence, this paper provides strong support for the government to formulate the policy for breeders, that is,influencing their adaptation behavior to climate change in the face of severe climate change and to push forward the transformation of agricultural production.