我国建筑业劳动力供需预测研究

Forecast of Labor Supply and Demand in China’s Construction Industry

构建了建筑业劳动力供给量估算模型,采用粒子群-新陈代谢灰色预测模型(PSO-MGM)预测建筑业劳动力的进入率和退出率,在此基础上估计建筑业劳动力的供给量。以不变价建筑业增加值和动力装备率为自变量,构建多元线性回归模型预测建筑业劳动力需求量。分别模拟建筑业稳定发展和持续进步两种情景下建筑业劳动力的供给量和需求量。结果发现在建筑业持续进步的情景下,劳动力供需达到动态平衡。根据仿真结果,分别从建筑业劳动力的供给端和需求端,提出了相应建议。

The construction industry’s labor supply was estimated by a direct estimation model,based on labor entry rate and labor withdrawal rate predicted by the particle swarm-metabolism grey model(PSO-MGM).The multiple linear regression model was constructed to estimate the labor demand of the construction industry.Added value at constant prices and power equipment rate of the construction industry were employed as independent variables.The total labor supply and demand were simulated under two hypothetical scenarios of the construction industry,including stable development and continuous progress.The results show that under the circumstance of making continuous progress can the construction labor supply and demand reach a dynamic balance.According to the simulation results,some corresponding suggestions were put forward from both the labor supply and labor demand of the construction industry.