基于改进FTA-AHP的隧道涌水事故风险评价

Risk Assessment of Water Gushing Accident in Tunnel Based on Improved FTA-AHP

隧道涌水事故会对隧道的安全产生巨大的危害,传统的事故树方法很难准确评价隧道涌水风险这一复杂性问题。以米林隧道为例,采用改进的FTA-AHP方法对隧道涌水事故进行风险评价。首先建立了以隧道涌水事故为顶上事件的事故树并求解最小径集及结构重要度,再基于事故树建立层次结构模型,利用结构重要度求解层次分析模型的判别因子,得出各基本事件的权重,对事故的致灾因素进行了定性识别和定量分析。结果表明:改进的FTA-AHP法能将隧道突涌水灾害的多种影响因素及各因素间的关系直观、系统地展现,排除了主观因素的干扰,提高了评价的准确性;导致涌水事故的环境因素所占权重最大;在众多的基本原因事件中,环境因素中的强降雨、沟水流入和结构内在因素中的断层构造发育是最主要的因素。

Tunnel water gushing accidents will cause great harm to the safety of the tunnel.The traditional fault tree analysis is difficult to accurately evaluate the complex problem of water gushing risk in tunnel.Taking Milin Tunnel as an example,the improved FTA-AHP method was used to evaluate the risk of water gushing accident.First of all,setting up the tunnel water gushing accident as the top event of fault tree and solving the path sets and structure importance,hierarchy structure model was established based on fault tree,the discriminant factor of hierarchy analytic model was solved by structural importance degree and concluded the weight of each basic event,the accident factors of the qualitative recognition and analysis.The results show that the improved FTA-AHP method can intuitively and systematically showthe various influencing factors and the relationship among them,eliminate the interference of subjective factors and improve the accuracy of evaluation.The environmental factors which lead to water gushing accidents take the largest weight.Among the many basic causes,heavy rainfall,gully water inflow of the environmental factor and fault tectonic development of the structure intrinsic factor are the important factors.