逻辑回归元胞自动机模型的鸡西市城市扩张分析及预测

Analysis and Prediction of the Urban Expansion of Jixi City Based onLogistic Regression Cellular Automate Model

城市的快速扩张导致人地矛盾激化,土地利用效率下降。分析并预测城市发展状态,可以实现土地资源的合理配置,为城市发展提供合理规划。本文以鸡西市市辖区为例,利用Logistic-CA模型进行城市扩张模拟及趋势特征分析。结果表明:1)鸡西市在2005—2015年间城市处于低速扩张阶段,土地利用效率较低,城市发展较为分散;2)通过对2020—2030年鸡西城市发展的预测,分析出研究区城市扩张的主要区域集中在鸡冠区和城子河区,土地利用集约性较高,城市发展模式由外延扩张式转变为内涵紧凑式,符合鸡西市“一核多心,点轴发展”的城市发展理念,可为鸡西市未来的城市发展提供参考。

The rapid expansion of cities leads to the intensified contradiction between human and land and the decrease of land use efficiency.Analyzing and predicting the state of urban development can realize the rational allocation of land resources and provide reasonable planning for urban development.This paper takes the municipal district of Jixi city as an example,and uses the Logistic-CA model to simulate urban expansion and analyze trend characteristics.The results show that:①Jixi city is at a low-speed sprawling stage from 2005 to 2015,land use efficiency was low,and urban development was relatively scattered;②The Logistic-CA model is used to predict the current land use map of the study area from 2020 to 2030 and the main areas of urban expansion in the study area are concentrated in Jiguan district and Chengzihe district.The land use is highly intensive,and the urban development model has changed from extensional expansion to compact connotation,which is in line with Jixi city′s"one core,multiple centers,point-axis development".The urban development concept can provide a reference for the future urban development of Jixi city.