基于FLUS模型的土地利用变化模拟与预测方法研究

Research on Simulation and Prediction Method for Land Use Change Based on FLUS Model

模拟和预测土地利用演变过程是规划者把握城市扩张趋势,从而确定更合理的城市用地布局的重要途径之一,对指导国土空间规划具有重要意义。研究基于CA原理改进的FLUS模型,通过耦合GeoSOS-FLUS及ArcGIS软件,从2011年土地利用数据中获取元胞转换概率,模拟了2018年土地利用变化情况。模拟精度较高,证明选取的模拟方法符合本地区发展态势,并利用该方法对2025年土地利用变化做了预测,同时对比分析了建设用地的变化情况,得出土地利用变化模拟方法。结果表明:所用方法能够有效模拟和预测土地变化趋势,可为用地分析、政策制定和国土空间规划编制提供参考。

Simulating and predicting the evolution process of land use change is one of the important ways for planners to grasp the trend of urban evolution and determine a more reasonable layout of urban land which is of great significance in guiding land spatial planning.It uses the improved FLUS model based on the CA principle to obtain the cell conversion probability from the land use data in 2011 and simulate the land use change in 2018 by coupling GeoSOS-FLUS and ArcGIS software.The high simulation accuracy proves that the model is suitable for the development trend of the region and also can be used to predict the land use change in 2025.At the same time,by analyzing the changes of construction land,it obtains the methods and conclusions of LUCSP.The results show that the method can effectively simulate and predict land change trends and provide references for land use analysis,policy formulation,and land spatial planning.