金融发展规模、门槛效应与房地产库存--基于门槛面板模型的实证检验

Threshold Effect Test of the Impact of Financial Development Scale on Real Estate Inventory

基于2004-2017年我国金融发展规模和房地产库存的省际面板数据,构建基准面板模型和门槛面板模型,考量金融发展规模对房地产库存的影响。结果表明:金融机构存款对房地产库存的影响具有区域差异性,东部地区和西部地区表现出抑制作用,全国和中部地区表现出促进作用,中部地区和西部地区显著。金融机构贷款对房地产库存具有显著的促进作用。股票市价总值对房地产库存的影响存在显著的门槛效应,随着人均GDP跨过门槛值,股票市价总值对房地产库存的影响由抑制作用转化成促进作用。此外,上市公司数量对房地产库存的影响在全国、中部地区表现出促进作用,且中部地区显著。市场化指数在基准面板模型中表现出抑制作用且不显著,但在门槛面板模型中表现出显著的促进作用。经济发展水平对房地产库存表现出促进作用,但不显著。

Based on the provincial panel data of China’s financial development scale and real estate inventory from 2004 to 2017,this paper constructs panel model and threshold panel model to consider the impact of financial development scale on real estate inventory.The results show that:the impact of banking financial institutions deposits on real estate inventory has regional differences,the eastern and western regions show an inhibitory effect,the national and central regions show a promoting effect,and the central and western regions are significant.Loans from banking financial institutions have a significant role in promoting real estate inventory.The impact of the number of listed companies on the real estate inventory in China and the central region shows a promoting effect,and the central region is significant.With the threshold transformation of per capita GDP,the impact of stock market value on real estate inventory changes from inhibition to promotion.In addition,the market-oriented index in the panel data model showed inhibitory effect,not significant,but in the threshold model showed a significant role in promoting.The level of economic development has no significant effect on the performance of real estate inventory.