基于熵-云模型的我国水利高质量发展评价

Evaluation of high-quality development of water conservancy in China based on entropy-cloud model

基于对水利高质量发展的概念解析,提出了以水旱灾害防御、水资源集约安全利用、水资源优化配置、河湖生态保护治理4项能力为切入点的判断准则,构建了水利高质量发展评价体系,并基于熵-云模型对全国31个省市区的水利高质量发展现状进行了评价。结果表明:水旱灾害防御能力方面,东部多数省份较优;水资源集约安全利用能力方面,黄河沿线各省份、海河流域及东南沿海表现较好;水资源优化配置能力方面,长江、珠江流域表现更好;河湖生态保护治理能力方面,西南及中东部表现突出。水利高质量评价结果的不确定性分析表明,水利高质量发展系统复杂度较高,有进一步改进和提升的空间。

Based on the analysis of the concept of high-quality development of water conservancy, the judgment criteria based on the four abilities of flood and drought disaster prevention, intensive and safe utilization of water resources, water resources optimal allocation and ecological protection and management of rivers and lakes was proposed. The evaluation system of high-quality development of water conservancy was constructed, and the current situation of high-quality development of water conservancy in 31 provinces in China was evaluated based on entropy-cloud model. The results show that most eastern provinces are better in flood and drought disaster prevention ability. In terms of intensive and safe utilization capacity of water resources, provinces along the Yellow River, Haihe River Basin and southeast coast area perform well. In terms of the ability of water resources optimize allocation, the Yangtze River and Pearl River basins perform better. In terms of ecological protection and management of rivers and lakes, the southwest and middle-east area are outstanding. The uncertainty analysis of water conservancy high quality evaluation results show that the water conservancy high quality development system has high complexity and there is room for further improvement.