中国与“一带一路”沿线国家能源贸易隐含水足迹分形特征分析

Analysis on fractal characteristics of implied water footprint of energy trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road”

采用自下而上的能源水足迹评价模型,对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家能源贸易隐含水足迹进行测算,解析其贸易结构及类型,并利用分形方法深入探究其位序-规模分布规律。结果表明:2001—2019年,中国能源水足迹出口规模较小且呈下降趋势,进口规模大且增长迅速;贸易结构以煤炭和石油水足迹为主,天然气水足迹占比小并持续提升;能源贸易隐含灰水足迹高于蓝水足迹。从贸易规模首位度来看,中国能源水足迹出口规模首位分布从不明显逐渐趋于明显,进口首位分布不明显且呈分散化趋势。中国与"一带一路"沿线国家能源贸易隐含水足迹位序-规模空间分布呈现多分形结构。出口中,高位序级别从集聚态演变为均衡态,中低位序空间分布较分散,东南亚是中国主要出口地区;进口中,高位序趋于均衡化,中低位序分裂化程度减轻,进口地区集中在中东少数国家,其次为俄罗斯和东南亚。

The bottom-up evaluation model was adopted to measure the implied water footprint of energy trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road”. The trade structure and types were analyzed, and the fractal method was used to deeply explore its rank-size rule. The results show that from 2001 to 2019, the export scale of China’s water footprint of energy trade is small and shows a downward trend, and the import scale is large and growing rapidly. The trade structure is dominated by coal and oil water footprint, and the proportion of natural gas water footprint is small and continues to increase. The implied grey water footprint of energy trade is higher than that of blue water. From the perspective of the primacy index of trade scale, the primacy distribution of export scale of China’s water footprint of energy trade is not obvious, and gradually tends to be obvious, while the primacy distribution of import is not obvious and shows a decentralized trend. The spatial distribution of rank-size of implied water footprint of energy trade between China and countries along “the Belt and Road” presents multi-fractal structure. In the export, the high order level evolves from agglomeration to equilibrium, and the spatial distribution of medium and low rank is relatively scattered. Southeast Asia is main export region of China. In the import, the high-rank tends to be balanced, the medium-and low-rank tend to be weak, and the import areas are concentrated in a few countries in the Middle East, followed by Russia and Southeast Asia.