碳中和目标下的能源经济转型路径与政策研究

Research on the Pathway and Policies for China's Energy and Economy Transformation toward Carbon Neutrality

"2030年前碳达峰"和"2060年前碳中和"目标要求我国能源经济系统进行深刻的转型。本文利用中国-全球能源模型(C-GEM)等模型工具,研究了碳中和愿景下我国能源经济转型的路径,定量评价了主要减排措施在不同时期的减排贡献度和所需的政策干预力度,对能源经济转型路径的关键特征指标进行了不确定性分析。研究表明,要实现"2060年前碳中和"目标,我国应进一步提高能源利用效率,2060年单位GDP能源消费相比当前下降75%以上;持续推进以新能源为主体的能源结构优化,2060年非化石能源在一次能源消费中的比重提高到80%以上;大力推进电气化和电力系统深度脱碳,2060年电力在终端能源消费中的比重提高至70%以上,非化石电力在电力供应中比重提升至90%以上,电力系统在2045~2050年间实现净零碳排放;碳定价机制将在碳中和转型中发挥关键作用,为低碳、零碳和负碳技术创新和产业转型升级提供有效的激励。研究还表明,碳中和将有助于我国经济高质量发展,2030年和2050年我国人均GDP将超过2万美元和3万美元。

China's energy and economy system needs a profound transition to achieve CO:emissions peaking before 2030and carbon neutrality before 2060.This study analyzes the pathway of transforming China's energy and economy sys-tem,quantifies the contribution of major emissions reduction measures in different periods and the required policy in-terventions,and conducts uncertainty analysis of key characteristic indicators of the energy and economy transforma-tion pathway using modeling tools including the China-in-Global Energy Model(C-GEM).Results show that Chinashould further improve the energy efficiency and reduce GDP energy intensity by 75%in 2060 compared with the lev-el of 2020 to achieve the carbon neutrality.China should continue to promote the transformation of the energy system with new energy as the mainstay and increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption to more than 80%by2060.Besides.China should vigorously promote electrification to increase the share of electricity in final energy con-sumption to more than 70%o by 2060.China should also decarbonize the power sector to achieve net-zero carbonemissions around 2045 and increase the share of non-fossil electricity in the electricity supply to more than 90%by2060.The carbon pricing mechanism will play a key role in carbon neutral transformation and provide effective incen+tives for low-carbon and zero-carbon technological innovation and industrial transformation and upgrading.This studyalso shows that carbon neutrality will contribute to the high-quality development of China's economy,and China's percapita GDP will exceed USs$20000 and US$30000 in 2030 and 2050.